| Résumé | Ice thicknesses for the lower St. Lawrence River are presented to support designing/adapting infrastructure for future ice conditions. Various approaches are used to predict ice thicknesses out to the year 2100 under two warming scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each approach varies in its complexity. Ranked in order of decreasing accuracy, the four approaches are: the NRC model, FDD approach, FLake model, and extrapolation of measurements. The extrapolation approach is only used to put context around our other predictions, not to advocate for it. Three of the approaches require input from climate data (i.e. ERA5 and RCP), which are validated with on-ice measurements and weather station data. Only shorefast ice (ice attached to the shore) is discussed in this report. Ice thickness predictions for the historic period are given for nine sites, three of which are used to provide estimates for the mid-century (2040 to 2060) and latecentury (2080 to 2100) periods. A comprehensive array of estimates is given to document long-term trends, period-averages, percentiles and extreme ice thicknesses. |
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