| Download | - View final version: Incorporating vessels of opportunity in exposure time estimates for Polar Regions (PDF, 2.5 MiB)
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| DOI | Resolve DOI: https://doi.org/10.4224/40003484 |
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| Author | Search for: Piercey, Caitlin1; Search for: Kennedy, Allison1; Search for: Power, Jonathan1; Search for: Farrell Elisha |
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| Affiliation | - National Research Council of Canada. Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering
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| Format | Text, Technical Report |
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| ISBN | 978-0-660-36781-1
978-0-660-36780-4 |
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| Physical description | 29 p. |
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| Abstract | This report provides a methodology for incorporating the potential impact that Vessels of Opportunity (VOO) could have on exposure times in Polar Regions. This methodology complements the exposure time estimations published by Kennedy et al. in 2013 and the generalized equations developed by Piercey et al. in 2019. The additional calculations for incorporating VOO were implemented into a Python program for estimating the exposure time at any location in the Polar Regions. The method presented to quantify the impact of VOO utilizes the same input variables as presented by Piercey et al. in 2019. The additional calculations added to the methodology require the input of relevant historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, which includes the potential VOO’s operating in the selected area at the time of year that is considered in the emergency scenario.
This report considers two example scenarios to demonstrate the impact that the inclusion of VOO can have on the resulting ranges for exposure times. The selected example scenarios reflect the same scenario parameters as the general emergency scenario presented by Kennedy et al. in 2013. The scenarios investigated in this report occur at the same location in two different months of interest to illustrate the variability of the presence of vessels of opportunity in relation to the time of the year.
Based on the example scenario results for July, it is not expected that there would be a vessel of opportunity in the area that could assist with Search and Rescue (SAR) efforts as the probability calculated was 0.0%. Therefore, the exposure time ranges that were presented without considering VOO are not reduced and represent the estimated exposure times for July with the consideration of VOO. Meanwhile, for August, a probability of 50.0% was generated for the probability of a vessel of opportunity being closer to the scenario than the nearest marine SAR base. Therefore, updated estimations for exposure time considering VOO’s were calculated, which reduced the overall estimated exposure time in August. The probability of a VOO impacting the estimated exposure time can be significantly influenced by a number of variables. Several assumptions were made when estimating the impact that VOO may have exposure time which should be carefully considered when using this methodology. For example: the size of the VOO is not considered when estimating the impact; only that a vessel is in a given area. Vessels that are significantly smaller than the vessel in distress may not be able to affect a rescue. It is the responsibility of the voyage planners to determine what variables and level of probability is sufficient to consider the reduction of exposure times due to the presence of VOO. |
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| Publication date | 2021-03 |
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| Publisher | National Research Council of Canada. Ocean, Coastal, and River Engineering Research Centre |
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| Copyright statement | - © (2020) Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the National Research Council of Canada
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| Language | English |
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| Peer reviewed | No |
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| Export citation | Export as RIS |
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| Report a correction | Report a correction (opens in a new tab) |
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| Record identifier | f4fb9a45-fff4-49b1-af97-447a43cd4c1d |
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| Record created | 2025-05-05 |
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| Record modified | 2025-05-05 |
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