| Abstract | One to two vessels collide with icebergs each year. Would you want to be one of those vessels? The ship-iceberg collision database can be used as a tool to prevent collisions. Probabilistic risk analysis predicts the likelihood of a collision given such parameters as radar, visibility, ice population, vessel speed, ice briefing, and sea state. The preliminary analysis develops relationships between these variables and informs how, why, and when they happen. All variables are evaluated in an unbiased and independent fashion. The two prevailing views of probabilistic risk analysis are global and local. A global view gives the probability of having a collision on the Grand Banks for a given year. Otherwise, the local view gives the probability of a collision for different traveling conditions. In addition, MINITAB was used to analyze the preliminary data analysis. Prevention is achieved through probabilistic risk analysis and preliminary analysis. The progressive continuation of the database will enhance the accuracy of both analyses. |
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