| Abstract | Transport Canada funded a project with the objective of providing real-time information to ships operating in the Arctic to minimize safety and operational problems due to pressured ice conditions. This will be done by providing real-time information and an onboard predictive system to ship operators. A tool capable of predicting formation of ice ridges, rafting, leads opening, and ice pressure build up along the shipping routes is needed to provide such information. Canadian Hydraulics Centre of National Research Council of Canada (NRC-CHC) in collaboration with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) of Environment Canada developed an ice forecasting model. NRC-CHC has collaborated with CIS and McGill University on the development of formulations of ice properties, ice thickness distribution and forecasting. The model is capable of predicting ice drift, ice thickness redistribution, opening of leads and pressure build up on a small scale applicable to vessel navigation. The focus of this report is on comparing the model predictions with ice pressure build-up in regions where vessels were trapped in pressured ice at the Northeast Coast of Newfoundland in April 2007 and in Strait of Belle Isle in January 2008. The results of numerical simulations showed that the ice forecasting model effectively simulated the process of ice pressure build-up, ice thickness and ice concentration evolutions. |
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