| Abstract | This report provides a methodology for estimating exposure time in Polar Regions. Using information provided by Canadian Search and Rescue (SAR) personnel and published by Kennedy et al. in 2013, a formula for calculating exposure time was developed and implemented in Python to estimate exposure time at any location in the Polar Regions. Variables considered in the calculation of exposure time include rescue craft speed, capacity, and range, proximity of bases and ports to the route of interest, the number of individuals awaiting rescue, and the number of survival crafts deployed. Other factors are related to SAR response, and include the time to deploy a task force, the time to receive communications, and search and rescue time. Presently, the International Maritime Organization’s International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (2017, the Polar Code) stipulates that the maximum expected time of rescue in the event of a maritime emergency must be no less than five days; this means that all equipment must be functional for at least the maximum expected time of rescue. This report therefore compares a maximum expected time of rescue of no less than five days with the estimated exposure time.
The results indicate that, particularly as new and more remote routes open up in the Polar Regions, estimated exposure time may be in excess of a maximum expected time of rescue of no less than five days. Therefore, as the Polar Code requires that life-saving appliances (LSA) support human survival for the maximum expected time of rescue, individuals may find themselves awaiting rescue beyond the required functionality of this equipment. |
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