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Unveiling disparities in moisture maximization-based PMP estimation across Canada: the role of atmospheric variables and long-term climatic trends

From National Research Council Canada

DOIResolve DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-95107-7_17
AuthorSearch for: ; Search for: ; Search for: 1ORCID identifier: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0451-7480
Affiliation
  1. National Research Council Canada. Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering
FunderSearch for: National Research Council Canada. Climate Resilient Built Environment (CRBE) initiative; Search for: Industry Canada
FormatText, Book Chapter
Subjectlinear regression; moisture maximization; probable maximum precipitation
Abstract
The traditional physical-based approach for estimating inflow design floods of large dams relies on the moisture maximization technique for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP). This procedure involves the direct product of maximum precipitable water and the highest precipitation efficiency derived from historical records. Nevertheless, this approach may overlook the influence of favorable atmospheric conditions that can transform maximum precipitable water into extreme precipitation amounts. Additionally, the formal moisture maximization approach prescribed by the World Meteorological Organization does not account for the long-term climatic trends of PMP components. This study investigates the relationship between seasonal maximum precipitation and corresponding precipitable water using gridded observations spanning the 1940–2021 period across Canada. Utilizing linear regression analysis, we observe a substantial proportion of grid cells showing non-significant relationship during summer, challenging the assumption of a linear conversion rate in moisture maximization-based PMP estimation procedures. Moreover, Mann–Kendall trend analysis reveals significant positive trends in seasonal maximum precipitable water, particularly pronounced during summer, indicating the potential inadequacy of the stationarity assumption for PMP estimation. We further investigate the suitability of additional atmospheric variables, including vertical integrated moisture divergence, vertical velocity, and convective available potential energy, alongside precipitable water. The analysis underscores the importance of considering regional variations in correlations for improving the accuracy of the moisture maximization procedure. These findings highlight the need for revisiting this commonly used procedure for PMP estimation.
Publication date
PublisherSpringer Nature
Canadian Society for Civil Engineering
In
  • Proceedings of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering Annual Conference 2024, Volume 9: Hydrotechnical (23 November 2025): 209–219.
Series
  • Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering 709.
LanguageEnglish
Peer reviewedYes
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Record identifier3fc9a094-4336-477a-a83b-967029ff4652
Record created2025-12-09
Record modified2025-12-18
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